Brave Girls' unusual backstory and their future prospects

20 days ago, Brave Girls seemed like your typical aging idol group with no future to look forward to. The fact that they even released a song, the retro-infused "We Ride", in 2020, was a surprise. The group's latest release prior to "We Ride" had been the sexy summery (but originally accompanied of a quite dark music video) "Rollin'" all the way back in 2017. Matter of fact, due to change in distribution rights, its original music video doesn't even exist anymore, with the song being re-uploaded 3 years later on Brave Entertainment's (Brave Girls' label) Youtube channel. It was a quite recurring joke during the time the group had spent on hiatus that its company would rather keep posting remixes of the song (like a "dance version", a "clean version" and a "new version") than giving a new song to the Brave Girls', focusing instead on the debut of boy band DKB. The group also lost a member in the meantime, as Hayun first took a break from Brave Girls due to health reasons in 2018 and eventually left in 2019 (she has since become an influencer on TikTok and gained over 5 million followers on the platform). Overall, Brave Girls seemed doomed to an inevitable disband.

That was until this video was uploaded.

The video, from Korean Youtube channel Vidtor, has got 9 million views since its release, on February 23rd, 2021. It's sort of a stage mix of Brave Girls performances at music festivals attended by members of the Korean armed forces, with comments popping up showing the excitement of soldiers about their performance, particularly the ones from September 29th, 2017 (the open air festival performance) and August 30th, 2019 (the one with the soldiers jumping from their seats). The latter, with the group already performing under the current four member formation, managed to amass over 5 million views. 

"Rollin'" started rising up the charts, first it re-entered Melon (Korea's biggest streaming platform) at the very bottom, two days after the video was uploaded, then it rose nearly 250 spots the following day. On February 27th, at 9 PM Korean Standard Time, it took 1st place on Bugs, Korea's 4th biggest music chart. Less than 24 hours later, it entered Melon's top 100. Genie, the 2nd biggest chart, was the next to be taken over, on March 1st. By March 5th, the song was already in the top 5 of all main music charts. Flo, the 3rd biggest, was finally conquered on March 8th. Three days later, it was Melon's turn, toppling none other than IU's, the most popular singer in the country, most recent song. Minor chart Vibe was the only remaining obstacle for the song to reach a perfect all-kill, which is the act of topping all charts, realtime and daily, plus the weekly chart, at the same time. On March 12th, it finally reached that milestone. Two days later, the group grabbed its first music show win for "Rollin'".

To put onto perspective how unusual their win was, it took Brave Girls 3629 days to achieve it, that's only 24 days before the group's 10th anniversary. That's by far the longest time an idol group has taken to achieve its first music show wins. Previous record holder, boy band Nu'est, had taken 2611 days until their first win (albeit they had some wins under a subunit prior to that), meaning Brave Girls shattered the record for over 1000 days. The difference compared to the girl group they took the record from, CLC, is even more jarring. CLC first win came after 1427 days, just a little over 2200 days (around 6 years) earlier than Brave Girls' first. They are the first group to get a music show win without a single one of their original members still on the group. In fact, if the debut of the current lineup was counted, they would still hold the record at 1854 days. The urgency for girl groups to get a win as fast as possible is much higher compared to boy groups, because the former rely on the public's goodwill and usually don't have big fanbases, while the latter can gather some sort of fanbase even when they aren't successful. Prior to Brave Girls first win, out of the 10 groups who took the longest to achieve theirs, 8 were boy bands and only 2 were girl groups, meaning sometimes girl groups don't even live for enough time to get there. Matter of fact Brave Girls is only the 10th girl group to win at a music show after its second anniversary and only the 3rd to win after its third (and Girl's Day, the other group alongside them and CLC to take this long, won exactly on the day they turned 3 years old).

But it wasn't supposed to be like this at the beginning. Let's take a look at the full story of the Brave Girls, going back to even before their inception as a group.

Origins: Following the old boss footsteps

Kang Dong-Chul, known by his stage name of Brave Brothers (even though he is just one) was a rising producer at one of the biggest music labels in Korea, YG Entertainment, which he joined in 2004. He started producing for YG soloists Lexy and Seven and later for Bigbang, YG's new boy band, which enjoyed great success from the start. His most notorious production for the group was the single "Forever With U" in 2006, which features then trainee and later 2NE1 member Park Bom (to which Brave Bros. would later produce some songs for her solo career). Kang left YG in 2008 to establish Brave Entertainment, following the footsteps of his old boss, Yang Hyun-Suk, who was also a former rapper and producer before founding his label in 1996. His last production for YG were a couple tracks at soloist Gummy's "Comfort" album.

Brave Entertainment had a rather slow start, not debuting any artist during their first two years. In the meantime, Kang started doing what would eventually make him famous: freelance productions. His first came in April 2008, for Pledis Entertaiment soloist Som Dam-Bi's electropop single "Bad Boy". A month later he produced "Secret" for former Shinhwa member Kim Dong-Wan, a song that also featured Girls' Generation member Tiffany as a narrator. His first freelance incursion with an idol group wasn't exactly the most successful, producing boy band's Battle "Step By Step" single album, their last before going on hiatus. However, that would change in September of that year. In a span of a week, the producer would see two charting success, "How Come", from rising girl group Brown Eyed Girls, the first song to feature the iconic "Brave Sound" robotic intro that would follow his productions over the course of Kang's career, and another former Shinhwa member Lee Min-Woo's "Don't Trust Men".

In 2009, just like in 2008, Pledis Entertainment was the first to ask for Brave Brothers services. They were about to debut the first girl group, After School, which would be the first Korean group to use the concept of a rotational lineup and member graduations seen in j-pop groups such as AKB48. After School debuted on January 25th of that year with the single album "New Schoolgirl", entirely produced by Kang, with "Ah" serving as the lead single. Its leader, Park Kahi, already had a previous connection with Brave Brothers work, providing the rap feature for the already mentioned "Bad Boy" from labelmate Son Dam-Bi. Kang also produced the next two singles for the group, "Diva" and "Because of You", the last one ended up becoming the first smash hit from his production career, selling 4 million digital copies in the process and earning the group their first music show win in December of that year.

However, if After School was the first girl group to be directly linked to Brave Sound productions, the one who would be associated the most with them would only debut a year later. Once again a relatively new company, Starship Entertainment, established in 2008, the same year Kang founded his own label, wanted to debut their first group, a quartet of girls by the name of Sistar. They drafted the producer for the group's debut single, "Push Push", released in June 2010. The Sistar-Brave Sound partnership turned to be one of the most successful in k-pop, as Kang also produced the next four singles of the group: "Shady Girl", "How Dare You" (the group's first win), "So Cool" and "Alone", with the last 2 going #1 and selling over 3 million digital copies, plus subunit Sistar19 smashes "Ma Boy" and "Gone Not Around Any Longer", although the group's subsequent track record, scoring 7 more #1 hits without him and with other producers such as Double Sidekick and Black Eyed Pilseung at the helm making it more believable that it was Sistar that helped make Brave Sound productions a big brand in k-pop and not the way around. 

The Sistar-Brave Sound relationship was so symbiotic that when Brave Entertainment finally debuted their first group, hip-hop duo Electroboyz, guess who did Kang draft to aid promotions for the group? Exactly. There were Sistar and Olympic gold medalist figure skater Kim Yuna trying to push their new group at their first comeback single. Brave Entertainment was pushing their new group hard, also giving them features with popular soloist NS Yoon-G and T-Ara's member Hyomin.

Original lineup: nothing but a side project

That was not the case. Brave Girls had a rather generic rollout leading up to their debut, in April 2011. Two teasers were released, showing different concepts of the group: boy-ish girl crush and chic sexy (the former looked very similar to Miss A's "Breathe"). Their original lineup featured five members: Eunyoung, Seoah, Yejin, Yoojin and Hyeran. Brave Girls ultimately debuted on April 7th, 2011 with the single album "The Difference", with two tracks, the sad-ish "Do You Know", where they showed the chic and the upbeat and very in line with other Brave Sounds productions of that time "So Sexy". "Do You Know" peaked at #19 in the Gaon chart, which would be the best charting result for the Brave Girls for the next 10 years. The single didn't sell poorly though, considering Brave Girls came from a rather small label, clocking at 11676 copies It's rather funny that they didn't use the outfits presented as sexy in the song called "So Sexy", which instead featured the girl crush outfits, but alas...

In typical recently debuted group fashion, Brave Girls quickly held their first comeback. In just a little under 3 months, the group was back with their first extended play, "Back to The Future". The title song was "Easily", featuring reggae singer Skull, which had worked in the past with Brave Brothers when he was still at YG Entertainment. The summery song is a big mix of genres, featuring piano ballad moments, reggae horns and drums and even a saxophone solo. Despite the lower peak than "Do You Know" (#38 at the Gaon chart), it sold more digital copies than their debut single, closing on 700 thousand downloads, compared to 430 thousand from "Do You Know". However, physical sales had a big decline, only registering a total of 3484 copies.

Brave Girls original lineup, concept photo for "Easily"

Brave Girls returned in February 2012 with their second extended play "Re-Issue", with "Nowadays, You", serving as the single. The song showed the group's capability of switching concepts, going from the summery vibes of "Easily" to a suit-based mature concept somewhat similar in aesthetics to recent Wonder Girls smash hit "Be My Baby" but using the characteristic electropop of Brave Brothers rather than the retro-ish sound of JYP. Their showcase comeback feature Brave Brothers new customers, boy band Teen Top, to which he would produce music for all the way up to 2017, but especially from 2012-14, plus labelmates Electroboyz. In the charts, the song improved from "Easily", peaking at #21 on the Gaon Digital charts and selling roughly similar in digital downloads. Album sales, however, declined, to just 2865 copies.

However, Brave Girls were essentially a side project to Brave Brothers and his crew and the hiatus that followed showed it clearly. With Kang's golden goose Sistar switching producers for the first time for their summer comeback "Loving U", new moneymakers were needed. The producer's bets were the aforementioned Teen Top and 4Minute, originally under the tutelage of rival freelance producer Shinsadong Tiger, first through its most popular member, HyunA, to which Kang produced "Ice Cream" in October, with the song featuring Electroboyz member Maboos, and eventually for the full group with their 2013 comebacks "What's Your Name?" and "Is It Poppin'?". Speaking of Electroboyz, though, Brave Brothers kept pushing the group, tying them to every popular girl he crossed paths with, including releasing remixes of Sistar19 hit "Ma Boy", first one featuring Hyolyn herself back in 2011, then one with After School's Nana in 2013, plus the already mentioned HyunA feature for Maboos. And speaking of After School, Kang returned to produce for the group for its summer release "First Love" (which ended up as their last Korean release), in June 2013. Only two months later Brave Girls would finally make their comeback, with digital single "For You", which wasn't even promoted and came with the promise of a future album on the horizon. The album never came and their next hiatus would be even longer.

Hiatus: the Brave Girls are A-O-A

Brave Brothers continued on their tour of giving music to everybody except their own girl group over the course of 2013. In October, rookie girl group Bestie released his production "Love Options", the quintessential "would have been a hit if released by a bigger group" song. But a new golden goose was about to emerge at Brave Entertainment headquarters. A group that seemed confused between being a live band or a dance pop group, or both at the same time. That had shown flashes of potential and had great and varying visuals but had never fully clicked with the public. The group in question was FNC Entertainment's 2012 debutants Ace of Angels, or, as most people would know them, AOA. And the song in question was none other than sexy concept classic Miniskirt.

This section will be rather brief because truth be told, there were no new developments for the Brave Girls as a group in 2014 and 2015. They were just on hiatus with no news, forgotten by everybody especially their own label. Brave Brothers kept producing for various girl groups during that time. In February 2014, on his own words, he released the "first collaboration of JYP and Brave Sound" producing Sunmi's "Full Moon". The following month, 4Minute's single "Watcha Doin' Today", also known as the song that simultaneously beat Girls' Generation and 2NE1 for a music show win, came out. In November, Fantagio girl group Hello Venus released Kang's production "Sticky Sticky" and followed suit for their 2015 releases "Wiggle Wiggle" and "I'm Ill". In 2015 he even snatched a group that had been produced by its rival Shinsadong Tiger since debut, making "So Crazy" for T-Ara. Even Nine Muses got a shot at a Brave Sound production but nothing came out for Brave Girls.

The real golden goose, however, was AOA. In 2014 alone the group made three releases, the aforementioned Miniskirt, "Short Hair" and "Like a Cat". The group was in their prime, quickly rising into one of the most popular in the country to the tune of Kang's productions. In 2015, it came the final coronation, with the group's signature song "Heart Attack". For all intents and purposes, they were the de facto "Brave Girls", getting most of the company resources directed towards song production.

New lineup: last ditch attempt

However, out of nowhere, Brave Girls' return to the scene was announced in February 2016, two and a half years since their last release. Instead of 5, Brave Girls would now be a 7-member group (interestingly, the same size as AOA). The only survivors from the original lineup were Yoojin and Hyeran. Gone were the three oldest members from the original formation: Eunyoung, Seoah and Yejin, replaced by Minyoung, Yujeong, Eunji, Yuna and Hayun. Yejin later disclosed she left because of their manager reckless driving.

Brave Girls were then quickly on the run, with their "2.0 version" making their debut in February 16th with sexy slow tempo R&B single "Deepened". On Hyeran's own words, it was the group's "last chance". The song got quite good reviews from critics and even landed in best of the year lists. It's arguably sandwiched between one of the finest runs of form by Brave Brothers as a producer, coming right after the release of Dal Shabet's retro single "Someone Like You", which later gained cult status. I guess losing the production of AOA's upcoming comeback lit a fuse under him.

As expected, considering such a long hiatus, "Deepened" didn't do well in the charts, peaking at #131 at the Gaon digital chart. However, it didn't end up as the group's last chance. Four months later, the group came back with the uptempo "High Heels". It's far more commercial than its predecessor, which even earned the group accusations of being sellouts. It definitely has a lot of callbacks to previous AOA tracks, especially "Heart Attack". If they were selling their souls for success, the call wasn't answered, because "High Heels" charted 14 spots worse than "Deepened", although it did manage to slightly outsell it in the long run. The extended play featuring the song also sold worse than any album from Brave Girls' original formation, clocking at just over 1 thousand copies. Not shocking considering any resemblance of fandom the group had in the past was destroyed by their hiatus. In August, the group released a typical summer concept with "Yoo Hoo" but the song failed to even register in the charts. Overall, it wasn't looking good for the Brave Girls revival.

Brave Girls concept outfits for "High Heels"

In a sense it seemed like the once hitmaker Brave Brothers had become a producer of songs that are cult hits but commercial flops. The aforementioned "Someone Like You" fits the bill. So does the two Brave Girls tracks above. Same for his 2016 production that followed it, Stellar's "Crying". Even when he returned to produce to AOA, the results were similar. "Excuse Me" produced the group's worst charting prior to their breakout with Miniskirt but later became appreciated. But the biggest of his sleeper hits was yet to come, even if it took four years for it to materialize. Brave Girls were now down to 5 members, it was truly the last Hyeran had spoken about, but she wasn't even there anymore, taking a hiatus (although in the end she would never return), announced alongside member Yoojin's departure, leaving Brave Girls without any member from their original formation. The group would be rolling on a tropical beat into a dark castle under a thunderstorm, while performing sexy moves such as shaking their hips on top of stools. On March 7th, 2017, it was now or never for the Brave Girls.

The tide was truly against "Rollin'". The song was deemed "unfit for broadcast" over vulgar lyrics. The music video teaser was given a mature rating, blocking anyone under legal age in Korea from watching it. The song predictably flopped commercially. 10 days after the comeback, member Yujeong announced a break after struggling with abdominal pain. The group was doomed and members acted accordingly. Once recovered, Yujeong grabbed some coins as a cover girl for men's magazine Maxim. She, alongside fellow members Eunji and Yuna, also auditioned for competition show "The Unit", which intended to give a second chance to failed idols. Both Eunji and Yujeong made into the main show but failed to make the final lineup. The aforementioned Hayun left and became a streamer. New leader Minyoung was largely silent, as the group seemed dead.

Until one video would change their entire history...

Future: Exid, Crayon Pop or Momoland?

There are three groups whose stories are tied the most to a viral hit.. Curiously, two of the groups (Exid and Momoland) blew up with viral hits that came from Brave Brothers main rival producer, Shinsadong Tiger. The third group is Crayon Pop. There are some aspects where the Brave Girls comparison is a bit more complicated, the main one being age. Exid were two years and 8 months old when their viral moment happened, while Brave Girls, even when only starting the count at the moment the new members joined, are already 5 years old. Crayon Pop and Momoland were actually still during the period groups are considered to be rookies, as they were only 1 year old for the former and 1 year and 3 months for the latter before going viral, however, they had no past track record of charting at all, which approximates them from the current iteration of the Brave Girls. 

There are obviously other examples of sleeper hits among girl groups: the aforementioned AOA's "Miniskirt", Girl's Day "Expectation", Gfriend's "Me Gustas Tu", Twice's debut "Like Ooh-Ahh", but they aren't as deeply associated to their groups history as the previous three, given these groups managed to have more successful songs in the future. That being said, let's explain how each one of their cases developed and what happened to them after.

The day was October 8th, 2014, in the city of Paju. Girl group Exid were in disarray, as their first release since 2012, "Up & Down" had failed massively in the charts, leaving them on the verge of disbandment. It seemed just like another performance before they met the inevitable fate. Until a fan captured member Hani's dancing to the song during that day. The video started blowing up, with new reports every time it crossed a milestone, first it was 1 million views. Then 5 million. Then 10 million, The song managed to climb all the way up to #1 in the charts by January 2015, four months after release, in a progression that quite resemble the one currently happening to "Rollin'". It is truly the most valuable hip thrusting in k-pop history. To this day it's scored nearly 35 million views. Before fancam spamming became a trend, it used to be the most viewed fancam of all-time.

Exid are the example of a viral story ending well. The group never had a song as big as "Up & Down", but managed to be among top girl group until ceasing activities in 2019, particularly between 2015-17, scoring two more top 5 hits ("Ah Yeah" and "Hot Pink") and 3 extra top 10s ("L.I.E", "Night Rather Than Day" and "DDD"). Worst case Exid were just a tier below the top girl groups of during these years and at least for 2015 were a top tier group.

Crayon Pop offers a less successful case but still positive overall. The quintet blew up through its song "Bar Bar Bar" in June 2013. The low budget video (made at a cost of $350), where the group invites everybody to jump, started going viral during that summer. After debuting at #143 on Gaon digital chart, it peaked at #3 seven weeks after release. On Billboard Korea's own version of the Hot 100 chart, the song went #1. Covers of the song were popping out each day during that time.

"Bar Bar Bar" gave Crayon Pop a record label deal with Sony Music, a music show win over boy band Exo, which sounds insane given the size gap between each group's fandoms, impressed the extremely hard to impress Yang Hyun-Suk, opened the door for them to open concerts for none other than Lady Gaga. Although the group never managed to come close to its success again, and only had one top 10 hit after in "Uh-ee", the song still managed to give them opportunities they wouldn't have obtained without it. Therefore, landing at average levels of popularity following it was still a win.

Momoland, on the other hand, was a group who has lived under a nightmare in the times that followed its breakout viral hit "Bboom Bboom" in early 2018. Released on the third day of the year, the song started climbing up the charts until eventually peaking at #2 in late February. The song was a bonafide hit. In 8 months it already had received a certification over reaching the 100 million streams milestone. Its music video is nearing on 500 million views and its dance practice has over 90 million even though the group doesn't have a big fandom to mass stream it 24/7. Yet, aside from the first few months, when it milked the song to a point they were still performing it on music shows 6 months after release, MLD Entertainment failed miserably to build from its success.

The early accusations of plagiarism by russian girl group Serebro of its song "Mi Mi Mi" could be interpreted as an early bad sign, but they got answered and didn't impact on the song's success and would pale compared to the mismanagement the group had to endure. On the chart department, the follow-up single "Baam" got decent views for the music video but peaked at #13 on Korean charts, meaning they couldn't score another top 10 hit. But the first major warning would come in their next release, "I'm So Hot", where it was announced members Daisy and Taeha would not take part for the promotions. That was particularly suspicious, especially on Daisy's case, given their recent dating rumours with boy band Ikon member Yunhyeong. This was the last time the group charted in the top 100. The hype of Bboom Bboom was gone and was replaced by news about lack of payments, members suffering from panic disorder, members departing the group, accusations about the group's lineup being rigged, inaprpopriate photos of members leaking.  Big fandoms targeting the group with hate sprees and accusations of being rude didn't help either. The group is now an one-hit wonder and a lot of it has to do with its terrible label, which failed in every imaginable sense in doing their job of protecting the group and setting it up for success, turning them instead into one of the biggest recent tragedies in k-pop.

Avoiding Momoland's fate is the biggest priority for a group like Brave Girls and a lot depends on how Brave Entertainment will act following the success of "Rollin'". The rather lethargic reaction from Brave Brothers, limiting to post hashtags such as #amen on his Instagram, was not well received, as people now anticipate a Brave Girls comeback. It was a positive step that the group returned for music shows starting March 12th, when they performed on MCountdown, but that should only be the start. Everything related to the song is pulling big numbers: relay dances, stage performances, fancams, idols dancing to it. Other Brave Girls songs are rising in the charts. For now, Brave Entertainment's focus seems to be boy band's DBK upcoming release, scheduled for March 30th. The real deadline will be for summer. It's imperative Brave Girls have a new release by then, so that "Rollin'" can't just be a viral hit on a vacuum.

A 2021 girl group perspective: the most crucial year in a long time

This article is basically a continuation of the last one, where I talked about how 2020 went for girl groups. This time, we take a look on their perspectives for 2021 and discuss scenarios on how the year could end up playing out for girl groups as a whole, but first, we have to fully delimitate who are the main actors in the current girl group scene are. Essentially, we can separate the currently active girl groups in four categories:

1. The 3rd generation core: these are the groups who currently dominate the scene. They mostly debuted from 2014 to 2016. The groups I consider to be in this category are: Red Velvet, Mamamoo, Twice, Gfriend, Oh My Girl and Blackpink. The large majority of hit songs from Korean girl groups since 2016 have come from those groups. Some observations: Oh My Girl used to belong to the group below but has definitely upgraded their status after 2020. Gfriend has declined but the group's past hits mean they are part of the core of the generation. I.O.I was also here but they are long gone.

2. The 3rd generation fringes: these are groups who at this point are already past the halfway point of their careers but never fully broke through, and as the years go by, their breakout becomes less likely, even considering that Oh My Girl managed to achieve such thing in 2020. Many of them have solid fanbases (Lovelyz, Cosmic Girls), some popular girls (Cosmic Girls' Bona, April's Naeun, Momoland's Nancy and former I.O.I members such as Gugudan's Sejeong, Weki Meki's Doyeon and DIA's Chaeyeon),  but that popularity never fully transfered to their groups and that also meant that even their most popular members are less known than most members of the core groups. Groups who belong here include Lovelyz, April, CLC, DIA, Cosmic Girls, Weki Meki, Momoland (who had a huge hit but didn't take the full step up the ladder) and Gugudan (at least before they disappeared).

3. The class of 2018: A transition year, hence the fact many are undecided if these groups are from the 3rd generation or from the 4th. The top groups of this class (Iz*one and (G)I-DLE) have been more successful than those from the fringe of the 3rd generation but have never reached the heights of the core groups and still haven't scored hits as big as theirs. Meanwhile groups such as Loona and fromis_9 are a step below the 3rd generation fringes, they aren't full "nugus" but they have less recognizeable members than these groups. A problem lies ahead for this class: Iz*one is a temporary group and is set to disband in the first few months of 2021.

4. The rookies: groups who debuted in 2019 and 2020. So far these classes have been quite weak. Itzy is the only group here whose members have any sort of public recognition, but their peak so far happened at debut. Aespa, the other group here who comes from a big label, just debuted a month ago, so it's too early to tell. They will have the push from SM so their members will get some recognition, but so far they are way below their main rivals Itzy. Besides them, most groups here are in the best case charting like the fringes of the 3rd generation (StayC) or in the worst case are nobodies in Korea carried by an overseas fanbase (Secret Number). Stationed in between sit groups such as Rocket Punch, Everglow, Cherry Bullet and Weeekly, with small local fanbases.

PS: second generation groups are irrelevant for this analysis. The only 2nd generation group that remains truly active is Apink (who are on a contract year for 2021), everybody else either disbanded, is on an indefinite hiatus that is essentially the same thing as a disbandment or in the best case is semi-active. If, let's say, a Girls' Generation reunion happens in 2021, it'll be a self-contained event that will bear no impact for other groups besides them. Just like when S.E.S reunited in 2016.

Itzy in the "Not Shy" music video. From left to right: Lia, Yeji, Ryujin, Yuna and Chaeryeong

With that being said now we can start drawing the scenarios for how 2021 could go for girl groups. I came up with five different scenarios of what could happen next year and, in my personal opinion, how likely to happen each one of them is.

Scenario 1: new guard challenges old guard

In this scenario, the veteran groups, particularly the 3rd generation core, have a quite strong year, leading the 4th generation into a scenario where they have to fight for the public's attention with established names. And they manage to succeed and demarcate territory in spite of such competition.  Groups such as (G)I-DLE and Itzy essentially start charting on pair with the past generation's core, while newcomers such as Aespa and StayC start to become known to the public. Iz*one's disbandment ends not being a setback for the generation, just like I.O.I's wasn't for the 3rd. This scenario is very unlikely to happen, as both the rise of the 2nd and 3rd generations was marked by a vacuum left by the previous one. Historically speaking clashing against veteran groups is bad for new groups. Veterans have a set core fanbase, the public's attention and popular members. New groups obviously have to create the conditions to have such advantages. The most likely way for the new generation to rise comes from our follow-up scenario.

Scenario 2: 2016 redux, a passing of the torch

In this scenario, we essentially have peaceful transition between generations. That has actually been the case in the past. The 2nd generation started thanks to an interregnum period, where 1st generation groups mostly disbanded but it took a few years until new ones arrived. For the 3rd generation, they didn't have such luxury, as there were still popular and active 2nd generation groups when they broke through. However, many of those groups took hiatuses to focus on solo activities, or had less successful comebacks, with only a few still managing to do well. That leads us to 2016, which was the breakout year for the 3rd generation. On that year, girl groups were very strong, scoring a total of 10 number one hits, the most since 2011. However, the breakdown of those hits was quite different from past years, with 8 of them coming from groups who had debuted since 2014 and only 2 from groups who debuted before 2014. That's despite the fact that none of those young groups managing to score a #1 hit on the previous year. Matter of fact, some of them hadn't even debuted. It was a total landscape change.

This was possible because the 2nd generation groups, as said above, retreated from their position of dominance in the scene. Girls' Generation, Miss A and Girl's Day took hiatuses. 2NE1, 4Minute and Kara outright disbanded. Apink, AOA and Exid had only one comeback, which weren't as successful as their previous ones. The only ones who managed to hit big were Sistar and Wonder Girls, who essentially acted as the bridge between generations, scoring hits on the summer of 2016 that blended with the ones from the newcomers. It's impossible to predict which groups are going to play each role if 2021 ends up being the year where this scenario materializes. What's factual is that the 4th generation needs a year like this to rise to the top. The question is when this year is going to come. In fact, not even when, it's worth asking if it's ever going to come. If it doesn't, then the scenarios below come into play.

2016 had the rise of new girl groups such as Twice (top) while older ones such as the Wonder Girls (bottom left) and Sistar (bottom right) still had hits, leading to a smooth generational transition.

Scenario 3: a timid transition

In this scenario, the groups from the class of 2018 and beyond start to occupy more space in the scene, but fail from reach the heights of past generation groups. In common with scenario 2 is the fact that many past generation groups leave the scene. This vaccum allows 4th generation groups to be more relevant, but instead of scoring #1 hits they essentially follow this hierarchy: the core of the generation becomes the ones who manage to chart in the top 10, with the best case scenario being a top 5 hit ocasionally. Meanwhile, the groups that settle along the fringes managed to chart around the top 100. Itzy and (G)I-DLE are the best equiped groups to be part of the core of the generation if that's the case (Iz*one too if they weren't set to disband). Aespa could join them if the resources SM is most likely going to spend on them to make them more popular end up producing results. New girl groups from big companies such as Big Hit and YG, if they indeed debut in 2021, also could be part of that core. However, even for big companies, having popular old groups doesn't automatically translates into success for new ones (for medium to small companies it pretty much never translates). Meanwhile, at the fringes, groups such as StayC, Loona and fromis_9 would lead the way, with them also seeing improvements on their charting, hovering around the top 100 to top 200. A wild card, in case it debuts, would be Starship Entertainment's new girl group, which could go either way, given Starship is a mid-sized company, but unless something goes wrong, it will feature the most popular female idol of the new generation: current Iz*one member Jang Wonyoung, who is under contract with Starship. As said above, this scenario can only take place with some 3rd generation retreatment, but what if it doesn't happen? That leads us to the next one.

Audition poster to recruit female trainees to Big Hit Entertainment's new girl group. Accoring to the company, it's going to debut in 2021 and will be co-managed with Source Music, Gfriend's company and now a sublabel of Big Hit.

Scenario 4: overshadowed

This essentially the status quo scenario. Currently, the biggest difficulty for 4th generation groups, is the fact that 3rd generation groups still largely overshadow them. They have the fans, the public, the media's attention and even their least successful comebacks still perform barely worse than the best charting comebacks from 4th generation groups. Essentially, that means 2021 will be more of the same. There will be some internal shuffling between the generations, with some old groups having better years than others, some disbanding, while some new generation groups will do better compared to 2020, others worse, but the results will be fairly static. That has been the case since 2018, with the girl group scene being quite static to a point that even the most successful new girl groups still slot themselves behind the veterans who debuted in the 2014-16 window. For 2020, many pegged (G)I-DLE or Iz*one to have their first smash hit, or Itzy to match the heights of their debut. Instead, it was Oh My Girl, a five-year old group riding the winds of a successful stint at a competition show (of which (G)I-DLE took part on) who did what people were expecting from the new groups. If even once mid-tier 3rd generation groups can make that jump before the 4th generation groups do, it bears the question: can these groups even take over the scene at all? That leads us to the final scenario of this video. And it's a quite gloomy one.

Scenario 5: girl group irrelevance

Dating back to at least 1997, girl groups have been a staple of the Korean pop music scene. Therefore, they can't suddenly disappear, right? Unfortunatly, the answer is no and something similar to this scenario already happened once. In the 1st generation, the 3 main girl groups were S.E.S, Fin K.L and Baby V.O.X. From 1997 to until around 2002. In December of the year, S.E.S was the first one to leave, as they announced their disbandment. Fin K.L were the second, as they started their hiatus, which was only interrupted briefly by a 2005 release that essentially acted as their goodbye song. Baby V.O.X stayed for longer, but the last true relevant year of the group was in 2003. The group released one more album in 2004, went on hiatus and disbanded in 2006. On the background of this trio, new groups started to debut. However, basically none of them managed to take off (the sole exception being 2001 debutants Jewelry) so the scene started to get emptier each year. That was a temporary situation, since the then dormant girl group scene witnessed a ressurgence in 2007, with the debut of groups such as Girls' Generation, Wonder Girls and Kara, but one that happened nonetheless, with the mid-2000s essentially being a period completely devoided of successful girl groups in Korea.

Why am I bringing this? Because the current situation is probably the one where girl groups have reached the closest to this point. As said in scenario 4, the currently status is that 3rd generation groups have largely overshadowed 4th generation ones. Another big problem is the fact that the Korean public is paying less attention to new groups year after year. As the old groups start to leave the scene, the new ones might not manage to rise, and instead start to chart worse as the public interest on them wanes alongside the departure of the old ones. There is no generational transfer of fans, no new fans joining the fold and a the public fully pulls the plug on them. And if new girl groups don't start to rise to the top in 2021, there is going to be a point where they are no longer new, and once you get past your first 3 years, it is hard for a group to rise beyond their popularity levels at that specific point. 

Therefore this makes 2021 the most important year for girl groups in Korea in a long time, at least since 2016, which is the year that, as said previously, brought the rise of the 3rd generation. 2021 better be the one that brings the rise of the 4th, otherwise time will start to run out for them.

Elkie and the poor treatment of chinese idols (and foreigners in general)

On December 26th, 2020, a surprising announcement arrived at the world of Korean pop music. As most were on a post-Christmas mood, CLC Chinese member Elkie came over with bombastic news that she decided to sue her agency, Cube Entertainment, on the grounds of not fulfilling payments. Many have suspected this relates to her participation on the drama "The Rich Son" in 2018. However, to fully understand her story, we need to go back a few years.

The year is 2016. Cube Entertainment's new girl group, CLC, had debuted less than a year ago but were already undergoing some changes. The group debuted in March 2015 and was originally a quintet for its first three releases, "Pepe", their debut single, part of their debut extended play "First Love", follow-up standalone single "Eighteen", a synth pop track whose lyrics are about a teenage girl expressing her love to an older man, and finally, "Curious (Like)", for their second extended play, "Question". However, none of them managed to hit, with Pepe being their highest peak at #143 on the Gaon digital chart. That was particularly surprising considering Cube's past record, which included many successful artists such as HyunA, Beast, G.NA, BTOB, Apink (as part of their A Cube sublabel) and CLC's own predecessors 4Minute. Cube was clearly unsatisfied with the group, to a point that in spite of the three said releases coming in a two-month span, CLC wouldn't be seen again until February 2016, with two new members on their lineup: Kwon Eunbin and Chong Ting-Yan, also known as Elkie.

It was a quite messy change to the group dynamics. Member Seunghee, who was CLC's original leader, resigned from her spot, with Seungyeon being named the new leader. Member Yeeun, originally the youngest of the group (which is quite an advantage in Korean idol groups) was suddenly relegated to 3rd youngest, as both Elkie and Eunbin were younger than her, a similar process to the one that happened to Red Velvet in 2015, which added Yeri to the group, making her the youngest member over the original one in Joy. There was also another problem, with the delays on their comeback, Eunbin was already slated to represent Cube on the new competition show "Produce 101", alongside Jeon Soyeon (yes, the current leader of (G)I-DLE), so when she was announced a new CLC member, she was already taking part at the show, with Cube stating that she would join CLC promotions for their upcoming single, "High Heels" in case she was eliminated from "Produce 101". In the end, she did not join the promotions, with the group performing as 6 and many blamed her slide on the "Produce 101" rankings, as she initially ranked in the top 10 for the first couple rounds but finished 32nd, eliminated one episode before the finale, on the announcement from Cube that she would be joining the group. In spite of all these shuffling, "High Heels" remains to this day the most successful CLC song on Korean charts, peaking at #120 at the Gaon digital charts, suggesting that the new lineup gave a small albeit brief boost to the group.

CLC posing for teasers of "High Heels", their first comeback as a 7-member group. Elkie pictured 3rd from the left (the one with the red beret and suspenders)

In the same 2016 that added Elkie to CLC, foreign idols were enjoying a resurgence in popularity among both Korean entertainment companies and the public in general. Gone were the fears of lawsuits such as the ones where three of Exo's chinese members departed the group, as companies started to debut foreign idols en masse. In the previous year, Pledis Entertainment had already debuted boy band Seventeen, featuring two chinese members, Jun and The8. JYP Entertainment debuted Twice, featuring four foreigners out of nine members, three Japanese, Momo, Mina and Sana, and a Chinese in Tzuyu (who happens to be a big friend of Elkie). Then in 2016 the group saw a meteoric rise, with its foreigners role playing a major role, as Sana went viral and Tzuyu rose to most popular member status in Korea, which is rare for a foreigner, propped by her youthful visuals. As the year progressed, many more groups debuted with a lineup featuring foreign members. First it was Cosmic Girls, featuring three Chinese members: Cheng Xiao, Xuanyi and Meiqi. Xiao, just like Tzuyu, also managed to be the most popular member, going viral for her otherworldly flexibility. In the final results of "Produce 101", Chinese idol Zhou Jieqiong, also known as Kyulkyung, finished in 6th place, earning a spot on I.O.I, the group formed from the competition show. YG Entertainment's Blackpink debuted featuring Thai member Lisa. CLC labelmates Pentagon also debuted in 2016 with one Japanese (Yuto) and one Chinese (Yan An) on their lineup. Matter of fact, Elkie herself wasn't even the first foreign member of CLC, as they had Sorn, who is Thai, on their lineup since debut.

However, on the geopolitical arena, something started to change that ended up halting such favorable situation for foreign idols, particularly those from China: the development of the Terminal High Altitude Arena Defense (THAAD), an anti-missile system, agreed in July of 2016 between military officials of Korea and the United States. China deemed the development of the system as a threat to its national security, slapping sanctions on many Korean imports, including entertainment-related ones. This had a major impact on such companies, which saw their combined balance of payment surplus cut in half, going from $520 million in 2016 to $270 million in 2017, after China shut them the door. Lotte Group, the Korean multinational who rented its land to be used for THAAD activites, suffered major boycotts in China. 

Meanwhile, on the idol front, the increased tensions between the two countries were the final straw for many Chinese idols to depart Korea for good. The two who highlight this trend the best, which would become commonplace in the following years, come from Korea's biggest label, SM Entertainment: Lay Zhang, from boy band Exo, and Victoria Song, from girl group f(x). In 2015, SM opened individual studios in China for both, as Lay got his in April and Victoria hers in October. The studios were a reaction from SM following the previously mentioned Exo lawsuit, which left Lay as the sole Chinese member of the group, allowing their Chinese idols still under contract to have more control of their solo activities in chinese soil while also getting a share of their earnings in China. Later some labels would repeat the strategy, such as JYP Entertainment with Chinese GOT7 member Jackson Wang. Lay had already been focused on solo activities in China since 2014, but in 2016 finally decided to debut as a soloist, with the album "Lose Control" and has become one of the top entertainers in China since. His last participation on an Exo release was in December of that year, for their winter album "For Life" with a brief cameo for the Chinese version of "Tempo" in 2018. Victoria did not miss many f(x) activities, as the group's hibernation into an indefinite hiatus coincided with her departure, albeit she was absent from what was probably the group's last concert, and has since established a successful career as an actress and soloist in China. They wouldn't leave without a final controversy, as they were two of many Chinese idols who opposed a court ruling regarding China's territorial claims in the South China Sea, alongside Miss A members Fei and Jia, Fiestar's Cao Lu and Super Junior-M Zhou Mi.

f(x) member Victoria (Song Qian) and Exo member Lay (Zhang Yixing) attending an event in 2015. Albeit still officially members of their respective groups, both Chinese idols haven't promoted with them since 2016, as the relations between China and Korea have worsened.

Although the labeling of departing Chinese idols as traitors was not something new, hence the fact that many label the three former Exo Chinese members who filed lawsuits against SM Entertainment as "traitor line", it started skyrocketing since then. The dynamic has also affected other foreign idols such as those from Japan and Thailand, with eventual slips from idols of such countries gaining attention as if they were akin to diplomatic incidents, with the increasing xenophobia inside the Korean society wiping out most of the support towards foreign idols, with Chinese idols taking the worst of it, to a point that the "traitor" narrative has even been applied to newly debuted idols such as Aespa's Ningning. In 2020, COVID-19 added an extra layer to the witch hunt towards them, as the narrative in Korea about the virus is similar to the one peddled in much of Western media, treating the coronavirus as a "Chinese virus". As a result, any news regarding China and its people in Korea gets strong reactions from local netizens. As an example, look no further than the petition to ban Chinese idols from working in Korea, citing once again the likes of Victoria, Cheng Xiao, Kyulkyung and Lay, many of them who used to be popular on a not so distant past in the country, as shown above. Even idols from places in China Koreans are sympathetic to such as Taiwan and Hong Kong, are not getting good reactions. Tzuyu, the once popular Taiwanese visual from Twice, has slid from 3rd most popular idol in the country in 2016, to 9th in 2017, to 12th in 2018 to out of the top 20 in 2019, that was despite the fact that her group had an increase in popularity during most of those years. Elkie, who is from Hong Kong, also got many accusations of being a liar over her lack of payments and another Chinese idol seeking to break her contract just so she can return home, with many bringing the example of Lai Guanlin, former Wanna One member and also under Cube Entertainment, who sought to break the contract with the company in 2019 but ultimately lost.  

It must be said that, if Elkie indeed wants to and ultimately decides to return to China, that's an entirely comprehensible decision and actually the most rational one. The odds of a foreign idol debuting these days only to become a filler member that many inside the fan base ignore or despise (particularly among Korean fans) get higher each day. And if you are a Chinese idol trying to leave filler member life, there is no better inspiration than Meng Meiqi. As previously mentioned, Meiqi debuted in Korea as a member of Cosmic Girls in 2016. There is a simple rule: the bigger the group, the higher the odds of being a filler member. In a 12 (later 13) member group, that means you have to be quite lucky not to be one. Meiqi wasn't. Koreans picked a Chinese member to pay attention to, but it was Cheng Xiao, as said before. During her stint on Cosmic Girls, it can be easily argued Meiqi was the least popular member. If being under such position is already upsetting under a four-member group, imagine how bad it must be when you're dead last among 13 people. 

However, being a "traitor" ended up as Meiqi's best career move. In April 2018 she joined, alongside her Cosmic Girls group mate Wu Xuanyi, the chinese version of "Produce 101", which coincidentally had a mentor who in the past left a Korean group to return to China: former Exo member Huang Zitao. Speaking of mentors, their other Chinese group mate, Cheng Xiao, had joined, three months earlier, a similar show, "Idol Producer", where she played such role alongside other big chinese idols such as Lay, Kyulkyung and Jackson, while Meiqi and Xuanyi were joining their show as contestants, highlighting how the abyss in popularity between Xiao and her fellow countrywomen was just as big in China as it was in Korea. But that wouldn't last for long. The duo quickly dominated the competition, with Xuanyi taking the lead at episode 3. After episode 5, though, it was Meiqi's show. She took the lead and never looked back, finishing first with a whopping 185.2 million votes, with Xuanyi coming in 2nd at 181.5 million. The win made Meiqi the center of the show's debuting group, "Rocket Girls 101". She blossomed as an idol during her time in the group, with her dancing abilities drawing special attention. Her solo debut extended play sold 1 million copies in 20 minutes, to this day, it has sold over 2.3 million copies. She later extended the record, as her 2nd EP sold 1.43 million copies in just 8 minutes. She essentially went from a nondescript member of Cosmic Girls to the biggest female idol in China. To this day, it has sold 1.78 million copies.

Meng Meiqi performing at "Rave Now". February 1st, 2019. Once one of the least popular members from Cosmic Girls, she has become a big star since returning to China, breaking many sales records.

And no, contrary to what some may be thinking, Meiqi is not an exception, just the most successful example alongside Lay. Sally (Liu Xiening), from now-disbanded group Gugudan was a non-factor when she was part of it, but now she has returned to China, placed 6th on reality show "Produce Camp 2020" and debuted for their new group, "Bonbon Girls 303".. Old, more established famous idols aren't doing too bad year. The already mentioned Victoria Song, who was a mentor on the same show Sally took part of, and was mentioned by the contestant as a role model, released her solo album this year and became the fastest Chinese female artist to get a diamond certification. Meanwhile, in Korea, popular Chinese idols have largely disappeared. The few exceptions are (G)I-DLE member and Elkie's labelmate Yuqi and Everglow member and Meiqi's labelmate Yiren, who are both the most popular members of their respective groups, as both of them have bet on their variety personas to get around the unfriendly situation to Chinese idols in Korea. But for every Yuqi and Yiren there are 10 Elkies, and being stuck in a situation where you act in a drama, but don't get paid, you debut solo but no one gives you attention, especially on a group that has been doomed from the start like CLC, is not something you want to endure. May she find success elsewhere, far away from Cube's mismanagement.

Obituary: Gugudan closes another chapter in the Produce 101 book

Today we are starting a new series on this blog: Obituary. We are going to look at the history of groups who have disbanded. As Jellyfish Entertainment scheduled the disbandment of its long dormant girl group Gugudan for December 31st, they will be the first group to be talked about in this series.

It's impossible to tell Gugudan's story without mentioning "Produce 101". In the late stages of 2015, music channel Mnet announced a new competition show format. A total of 101 female trainees from multiple entertainment companies inside and outside of Korea would compete for 11 spots on a girl group, which would promote for a year. The concept of a survival show to form a group wasn't a new thing in the industry, but was largely restricted to the boundaries of one company, for example, in YG Entertainment's "Win: Who's Next?", which resulted in forming the boyband Winner. Or JYP Entertainment's "Sixteen", which formed girl group Twice. Interestingly, both shows aired on Mnet. In the end, a total of 46 companies, plus five individual trainees accepted the challenge.  Although many of them were small companies hoping to land one trainee that would improve their fortunes, many were long consolidated in the scene and had successful girl groups in the past. Cube Entertainment, home of  4Minute sent three trainees. DSP Entertainment, who had legendary girl groups such as Kara and Fin K.L, sent two. T-Ara's MBK Entertainment also sent a couple. Pledis Entertainment, known for its rotational girl group After School, sent a whopping seven trainees, which by themselves could form a group (and they later did). Sistar's Starship Entertainment sent a trio as well. And even though the Big 3 companies (SM, YG and JYP) were largely absent, the last one sent a lone trainee, 14-year old prodigy Ennik Somi Douma. The first release related to the show was the infectious "Pick Me", on December 17th, 2015, featuring 98 of the 101 contestants. The song became a sleeper hit, rising up the charts as "Produce 101" started airing in January 22nd, 2016, eventually peaking in the top 10 in the Gaon charts. "Pick Me" would also turn into the show's theme song, being performed and each of its following three seasons.

Produce 101 introduction press conference, January 21st, 2016

Among the companies not mentioned above, there was Jellyfish Entertainment. Founded in 2007, Jellyfish started its road on the industry by signing established ballad singers such as Sung Si Kyung and Park Hyo Shin. Their first incursion on the idol group business came in 2012 with the debut of boy band Vixx, formed from competition show "MyDOL", which aired, you guessed, on Mnet. Vixx found some success and would establish itself on the scene for their unique concepts. In the same year, Jellyfish hit big with its project "Jelly Christmas", established back in 2010, through the song "Because It's Christmas", featuring its full lineup of artists at the time. The project would score another #1 hit the following year, with "Winter Propose". By the time "Produce 101" arrived, Jellyfish had a longtime relationship with Mnet, which started when Mnet's parent company, CJ E&M, acquired 19% of its stocks in 2013 (later in 2017 it became Jellyfish's majority shareholder, before selling it back to the company's founder, Hwang Se-Jun). However, Jellyfish had no history whatsover when it came to female idols. Matter of fact, it had only two female singers on their roster, "K-Pop Star 4" contestant Park Yoon-Ha and former Jewelry member Park Jung-Ah, who at this point was focused on her acting career following her group's disbandment. Even so, both had been relatively successful, with Yoon-Ha even landing a #1 song from her "K-Pop Star" stint. Maybe such lack of tradition wasn't going to be an issue for "Produce 101" at all.

Jellyfish sent three of its female trainees to the show: Kang Mina, Kim Nayoung and Kim Sejeong. Turns out they had some hidden gems inside the company. The trio quickly emerged among the show's top contenders, with their introduction audition becoming the most watched of the show, scoring over 10 million views as of 2020. For the first 6 episodes of the show, all of their trainees were inside the top 11 debutants, making Jellyfish the only agency to accomplish such feat. Sejeong was the standout, becoming the top ranked trainee of the entire contest by episode 5. as she had stolen the show with her powerful vocals, taking center stage for a cover of  Wonder Girls' "Irony". Her battle for 1st place with JYP Entertainment's Somi would become one of the main storylines of the competition. Ultimately, Sejeong came in 2nd. However, by episode 8, the other two Jellyfish contestants had fallen out of the top 11, decreasing the odds of the full trio debuting. In the end, Mina managed to crawl back to 9th place and become the company's second representative on I.O.I, the temporary group formed at the end of the show. Nayoung, on the other hand, barely missed the cut, finishing 14th. 

"Produce 101" came to an end on April 1st, 2016. Just four days later, I.O.I dropped its first single, electropop track "Crush", who had been performed by the final 22 contestants in the last episode of the show. Mnet was in a hurry to present the new group to the public and initially intended to release it as the group's debut song. Ultimately, it decided that the song would serve as a pre-debut release, scheduling I.O.I's proper debut to May 4th, with an extended play, whose title, "Chrysalis", came up as a suggestion from Sejeong herself. The album would feature four new songs plus new recordings of the previously released "Crush" and "Pick Me". "Dream Girls" would serve as the title track. The song peaked at #7 on the Gaon Digital Chart. Individually, Sejeong continued to emerge as one of the hottest new idols in Korea, landing a gig on KBS variety show "Tales for Sale", where she once again impressed with her variety skills. Despite being a newcomer, she handed the spotlight on her with ease.

Jellyfish knew that too, they had a gem on their hands and wanted to capitalize on Sejeong's quick rise themselves. If Mnet rushed I.O.I as quick as they could, Jellyfish followed the same strategy for its new girl group and be the first company to capitalize on I.O.I's success. On June 7th, just a little over a month after I.O.I's debut, they revealed that their two members from the group would indeed be part of a new group. Two days later, Nayoug, their 3rd "Produce 101" contestant, was announced to also be a part of it. On June 13th, they first teased the group, under the name of "gx9", a reference to them having nine members, then the following days rolling out teasers introducing the members. Joining Sejeong, Mina and Nayoung would be members Mimi, Hana, Haebin, Sally, Soyee and Hyeyeon. The group finally debuted on June 28th, under the name of Gugudan, with their first EP, "Act 1: The Little Mermaid", with track "Wonderland" serving as their debut song.

To say "Wonderland" wasn't well-received is an understatement. The song was quite criticized for being a very generic track, being just another typical cutesy, high-pitched and aegyo infused song many groups had tried in that very same year: Gfriend, Twice, Oh My Girl, April, and obviously I.O.I themselves. Jellyfish clearly put their two I.O.I members front and center on the promotions, but it was of no avail. Gugudan was the ultimate generic group and that was its biggest problem. Also, by occupying Mina and Sejeong with its debut preparations, it created a headache for I.O.I, who wanted to continue promoting but had to do it under an incomplete formation. Their way to work around it was launching a 7-member subunit in August, which promoted the single "Whatta Man", sampling a 1968 song by soul singer Linda Lyndell, which also had been sampled by a girl group in the past, when Salt-And-Pepa did so in 1993. Missing from the unit were obviously the Gugudan duo, plus other two members who returned for promotions with their groups: Chaeyeon, who debuted for DIA in 2015, and Yeonjung, who had joined Cosmic Girls as their new member.

Gugudan spent the rest of 2016 largely dormant, as Sejeong and Mina went back to I.O.I. In October, the 11-member group released its last fully promoted comeback, the cutesy and fast-paced "Very Very Very", produced by none other than JYP Entertaiment founder Park Jin-Young. The song was very very very successful, giving I.O.I it's sole #1 hit and three of its four music show wins. Meanwhile, Sejeong kept bulding her popularity, landing a solo hit on the following month with "Flower Way", a ballad produced by well-known rapper and Block B member Zico, which peaked #2 in the Gaon Digital Chart and gave her a music show win at debut. She also closed the year with a participation on KBS' "Immortal Songs", showcasing her top-notch vocals once again. As expected, I.O.I disbanded in January 31st, 2017, releasing its final song, the farewell ballad "Downpour". Following the disbandment, Jellyfish acted quickly, announcing the release of "Act 2: Narcissus" for February 27th, with new single "A Girl Like Me", a girl crush concept with a retro beat. 

The new song was a big step up from "Wonderland" and a better fit to the group's members, playing to its strengths, particularly its abundance of good vocalists. It also fully embraced the group as being Sejeong and Mina's, considering both sing over 1/3 of the song. However, the negative impressions from the debut were a tough hurdle to come. Sales wise, Gugudan improved from its debut, going to 29 thousand copies, up from 22 thousand, but on the singles chart, the group essentially remained in the same position, as "A Girl Like Me" peaked at #38, down 3 spots from "Wonderland". In fairness, out of the groups with I.O.I members, Gugudan were the ones posting the best results, as Pristin, which debuted on the month after Gugudan's first comeback, and Cosmic Girls were charting around top 50. DIA themselves were charting top 80. Even as the hype from "Produce 101" started to wear out, Gugudan were still well-positioned as a mid-level girl group who could eventually rise with later comebacks, after all "A Girl Like Me" charted roughly similar to Oh My Girl's sole 2017 comeback, "Coloring Book" (which peaked at #37). However, considering we are writing a post about Gugudan's disbandment and currently Oh My Girl are one of the most popular girl groups in Korea, it's safe to say their careers went in quite opposite directions since. And indeed, "A Girl Like Me" would be the highest point of Gugudan's short lived history.

However, Jellyfish seemed to start giving up on the group, as Gugudan only had one activity on the following 9 months, the debut of subunit Gugudan 5959 (or Ogu Ogu), featuring members Mina and Hyeyon. Probably no one saw the writing on the wall better than its most popular member. As the group started to crumble, Sejeong knew she was at risk of becoming just an afterthought, long removed from the days of success at Produce 101, and started to take every possible opportunity. Even before the group's first comeback, she already had lined up a "King of Masked Singer" performance, a participation on the soundtrack of massively popular drama "The Legend of The Blue Sea" and joined reality show "Get It Beauty". A month later, she took part on variety show "Law Of The Jungle", partnering with BTOB member Sungjae. She also appeared on "Battle Trip", alongside fellow member Nayoung, with the show even taking a visit to Gugudan's dorms. Finally, she made her acting debut in July 2017 in the drama "School 2017", to which she got four nominations for "Best New Actress", winning one of them at the KBS Drama Awards. Mina also followed suit, debuting as an actress in October as the young version of the protagonist of "Children of the 20th Century". As its main members started to thrive outside the group, Gugudan finally made its comeback on November 8th, with their first single album, "Act 3: Chococo Factory", missing member Soyee, plagued by a longtime shoulder injury. "Chococo" was chosen as their main single.

The long hiatus clearly hurt the group, who went from charting top 30 to outside the top 100, with "Chococo" only charting in the domestic Gaon Digital Chart (where only Korean songs are included), at #95. It was the last time they charted on any Korean digital charts. Gugudan had lost any hype from "A Girl Like Me". The song in itself has its catchy moments, solid but not spectacular. Sales also went down, with the album selling 20 thousand copies. The music video definitely stands out for its rather bizarre nature. Interestingly, Jellyfish acted quickly this time and brought the group back less than 3 months later, with another single album, "Act 4: Cait Sith", dropping on February 1st, 2018. Soyee returned to the lineup. The new title track was the electro whistling "The Boots". The song is rather infamous for its line distribution, which sees Sejeong singing over 40% of it. Gone were the colorful outfits of "Chococo", replaced by black outfits and another 180 degree concept change. This time, it didn't move the needle, the song only managed to enter the Gaon Download Charts at #48, but didn't make the top 100 for the digital charts. The sales remained around the same number as the previous album, around 20 thousand copies.

In the following months though, the same pattern of 2017 repeated itself in 2018. Gugudan remained a dormant group, only releasing a subunit song, this time with their popular trio of Sejeong, Mina and Nayoung, called SeMiNa in reference to each member's first syllable of their names. The sassy and summery song, which carries the same name as the unit, clearly has Nayoung as its standout performer, between her high notes and her blonde hair and music video outfits. On the individual front, Sejeong continued her activities, becoming part of Netflix show "Busted", where she remains to this day, as the show is already on its 3rd season, which is expected for 2021 and once again she took part on a soundtrack of a popular drama, this time "Mr Sunshine". However, she wasn't the only member to enjoy a good year regarding solo activities, with Mina also rising as 2018 progressed. First she landed a gig as an MC for MBC's "Show Music Core". Later, she also landed her first main role, at drama "Tale of Fairy", including a kissing scene. She also appeared on the show's soundtrack.

Meanwhile, Gugudan's situation continued to deteriorate. Hyeyeon, who had been on hiatus since May, announced her departure on October 25th. In spite of this news, the group finally made its return on November 6th, which was, coincidentally, the day after Mina's new drama premiered. "Act 5: New Action", with the dancehall inspired "Not That Type". It would be the last time Gugudan made an appearance as a group.

They indeed saved the best for last. "Not That Type" has an addictive beat and does an excellent job in building up tension. The chanting chorus was something many girl groups have adopted since, but failed to come up with something as addictive and explosive as Gugudan. As girl crush has become the dominant concept for the past two years, "Not That Type" gets better, as it remains one of the last great songs tied to such concepts. Every new generic girl crush track that drops enhances it, which is quite funny when you consider Gugudan were the ones who started their careers being labeled as a generic group. Its disbandment was a quite obvious outcome, considering their hiatus had already lasted for over 2 years, and especially following the news from member Sally, saying Jellyfish told them to leave their dorms. It closes another chapter in the history of "Produce 101", alongside Pristin's disbandment last year. It leaves Weki Meki as the last remaining group with I.O.I members who debuted following the show's ending. 

However, not everything on their history is sadness and the feeling that they were just another girl group who couldn't make it and fell due to negligence. In the end, three of its members managed to build careers who will allow them to remain active for some years. Sejeong is the obvious example. Becoming bigger than the group (which was probably true from its start) ended up being a blessing for her. She resumed her singing career,  first with a new single, "Tunnel", in December 2019, then releasing her first album, "Plant", on March 17th, 2020, followed by another single in "Whale". Simple ballads that display her same great vocals that made her popular in the first place are her bread and butter. But her last successful venture is a fairly recent one, as she is currently acting in the drama "The Uncanny Counter", which has become a sleeper hit, seeing its ratings rise every week. And yes, once again she participates on the soundtrack. Mina stayed for over two years on her gig as a MC for Music Core, parting ways with the show only May 30th, 2020, ending the final link between the group and the idol scene. She also followed the footsteps of Sejeong, participating in a season of "Law of the Jungle" in 2019, which was followed with a supporting role on top drama "Hotel Del Luna" (and another kissing scene). Mina is still only 21-years old, which means she has time to build on her acting career. Last, there is Sally. The Chinese member, which was largely forgotten when part of the group, returned back home, where she joined competition show "Produce Camp", placing 6th and debuting on new group "Bonbon Girls". It is the end of the line for Gugudan, but definitely not for its former members.

Gugudan: June 28th, 2016-December 31st, 2020.